As we wait for the Finals to begin, I thought I'd start my offseason team-by-team look (It feels great not to be focusing on the Celtics offseason) and we'll start with #1 pick, Chicago Bulls.
1. Sort Out The Roster
The Chicago Bulls have one keeper on their team, Luol Deng, and he's a restricted free agent. As much as I liked Deng's game, I'm not sure if you can really afford making him a full max contract player. Paxson should try to get creative with Deng's contract (as he did with Hinrich's diminishing salary deal) and try to get Deng under contract for a more reasonable amount.
Ben Gordon, on the other hand, seems like a bit of a done deal. I don't think he ever really got a fair shot under Scott Skiles and the odds of him getting one under Doug Collins seems unlikely as well. Collins is a defensive-minded coach so there's little-to-no chance that Gordon would get out of his 6th man role. The Bulls will likely either have to try to workout a sign-and-trade for Gordon but if someone makes a big enough money offer to Gordon, Chicago will have to just cut ties and let him walk rather than match the offer and get stuck with a highly paid bench player whom the coach might not be a huge fan of.
The next issue, especially when it comes to Doug Collins, is Tyrus Thomas. Thomas could blossom into a Josh Smith-type defensive stalwart but the question is whether he wants it. And the last talented young big man Collins had to handle was Kwame Brown and we all saw how that panned out. You hate to essentially spend a #2 pick on a potential player and give up on him after just two years but the Bulls might be better off packaging Thomas along with either Larry Hughes or Drew Gooden's expiring contract and bring in a veteran big man. Unfortunately, the odds of the Bulls getting legit value for Thomas could be slim and we've already seen that Paxson is not going to give up any of his player if he doesn't think he's getting max value in return.
Kirk Hinrich's value is too low to move him right now while Larry Hughes's contract is probably too high to make him much of an asset. Andres Nocioni is a valuable player whom Coach Collins will likely love. Chris Duhon seems like he's ready to take the first L out of Chicago.
So penciling in the guys who aren't on the block, you're looking at a roster of: Kirk Hinrich, Larry Hughes, Luol Deng, Andres Nocioni and Joakim Noah with Thabo Sefalosha and Aaron Gray as the key reserves.
2. The Draft
I absolutely hate the idea of passing on Michael Beasley but the Bulls seemed to have made their decision by hiring Collins. Collins is a guy who often preaches the importance of point guard play and is focused on defense (which is Beasley's main weakness right now). You have to think that Collins would love a potential backcourt of Rose, Hinrich, and Deng and I suspect that, barring some insane offer from Miami to move down to #2, that is how the Bulls will proceed.
One of the best parts about having the #1 pick is that the Bulls will be able to spend more time working out players for the 2nd round pick. The second round isn't quite as rich as it was when high schoolers could still declare but it is still a good place to find key role players ala Ryan Gomes, Daniel Gibson, Carl Landry, etc. If the Bulls go with Gordon, they should be able to find a decent big man in the second round (Devon Hardin, Joey Dorsey, Richard Hendrix, etc.) or a backup to Deng (Gary Forbes, Bill Walker, Sonny Weems).
3. Trade Market
Here's where things get tricky. Outside of a sign-and-trade of Ben Gordon, I'm not sure what the Bulls can manage during the off-season. Ty Thomas isn't going to fetch near his potential, Larry Hughes's value rises exponentially next year when he's an expiring deal (even at mid-season, he'll be worth much more), and Drew Gooden's deal isn't exactly going to get people running with great offers. I wouldn't be too surprised if Paxson sets his sights for mid-season or offseason 2009 to really make his move. Unless a team is still high on Hinrich, I'm not sure what deals the Bulls can make to improve their lot. Word is that Miami likes Hinrich but besides Shawn Marion, they have nothing to give up. Would they make a Marion for Hinrich/Nocioni type deal? I doubt it but then again I should know better than to bet against an NBA GM making a silly trade. Barring one of those types of deals, the Bulls might be better off letting Gooden play out his contract and having some more cap space for next year's offseason.
4. Free Agency
The Bulls probably won't be a player in terms of the big ticket items (again, unless someone is interested in Hinrich and/or Ty Thomas) and the MLE crop isn't all that appealing. They might simply look for some smaller signings ala Darrell Armstrong or Anthony Johnson (who could prove to be a good mentor for young Derrick Rose), backup 3's like Mo Evans/Quinton Ross or big guys like Brian Skinner or Craig Smith.
5. Summary
Jon Paxson's been burned by waiting to pull the trigger on deals but this year, he might not really have much choice. Unless he can swing some sign-and-trades or sell people on the potential of Ty Thomas/production of Kirk Hinrich, it could be an off-season of little change in Chi-town. Doug Collins is likely going to get a feel of his personnel in the first half of this season and then Paxson's job will begin in earnest to truly shape this team into a contender.
Possible Final Roster
Starters: Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, Ty Thomas, Jo Noah
Bench: Andres Nocioni, Larry Hughes, Thabo Sefalosha, Aaron Gray, Drew Gooden, Darrell Armstrong, Quinton Ross, Cedric Simmons.
